India asAs one of the major producers of components,India’s exports to the United States and Europe have seen significant growth in recent years.However,according to the latest research report from JMK Research,titled "New Models of the Global Solar Supply Chain," although India’s exports of solar components to the United States and Europe will reach their peak in 2025,a declining trend is expected from 2026 onwards.This is primarily due to the gradual commissioning of domestic manufacturing plants in the United States and Europe,which will reduce their reliance on components from India.

Current Status of Indias Module Exports to the U.S.and Europe

Export Volume and Growth

In 2023,India is expected to export nearly $1 billion worth ofmodules to the U.S.accounting for 97% of Indias total global module exports.Particularly in 2023,Indias photovoltaic module exports to the U.S.showed exponential growth,increasing 16-fold compared to 2022.

Influencing Factors

The U.S.investigation into module imports from Southeast Asian countries and President Bidens veto of the congressional proposal to revoke the two-year exemption for solar photovoltaic imports from Southeast Asia have both contributed to the significant growth in Indias solar module exports to the U.S.

Export Prospects

Although Indias solar module exports to the U.S.and Europe are currently high,with the commissioning of domestic manufacturing plants in these regions,exports from India are expected to decline starting in 2026.

Coping Strategies for Indias Solar Manufacturing Industry

Expanding Markets

To address potential reductions in exports to the U.S.market,Indian solar manufacturing companies should target markets outside the U.S.and Europe,such as Africa and South America.

Seizing Opportunities

Some countries may seek alternatives to Chinese imports,providing more opportunities for Indian solar module manufacturers.

Strengthening Cooperation

The United States may establish a ’friendly supplier distribution’ agreement with India under the ’Quad Security Dialogue,’ under which the U.S.will continue to import a certain quantity of photovoltaic products from India.

Prospects for Indias Solar Module Production

Production Expectations

By next year,Indias module production is expected to exceed 20GW,surpassing the domestic demand of over 10GW.By 2030,module production is projected to reach approximately 60GW,with domestic demand increasing to over 20GW.

Gap Between Demand and Supply

The gap between domestic demand for solar modules and production in India is expected to widen further in the coming years,meaning India will need to find more export markets to address its overcapacity issues.